COMPARE · Data as of August 14, 2026
FLY vs HWM
Verdict: Side-by-side breakdown using the Bull Rankings model. FLY scored 20.6, HWM scored 67.0 — HWM leads.
Compare another set
FLY
Firefly Aerospace Inc.
20.6
$26.67 · $4.5B
fundamentals as of
Score gap
46.4
HWM leads
HWM
Howmet Aerospace Inc.
67
$289.18 · $115.3B
fundamentals as of
The model, pillar by pillar (0–100 each)
FLY
stronger →← stronger
HWM
18
Qualityreturns · margins · balance sheet
85
100
Growthrevenue & earnings expansion
86
4
Valuevaluation vs sector peers
41
HWM is stronger on 2 of 3 pillars.
Fundamentals, head-to-head
FLY
HWM
-$326mF
FCF
$1.8bC+
+163.0%A
Rev
+18.1%B+
0.04A
D/E
0.81B
15.6xD
P/S
—
—
PEG
0.80A-
—
P/E
62.3xD
Winner per row is the stronger grade in our model; a tie or a missing value shows no highlight.
Valuation · DCF cross-check
FLY
HWM
—
Price vs fair valuelower is cheaper
257% above
—
Growth the price implies10-yr FCF · lower = less priced in
~47%/yr
—
1-yr DCF upside
-77%
—
5-yr DCF upside
-72%
—
10-yr DCF upside
-62%
The DCF is a cross-check on intrinsic value, separate from the quality-growth score above.
Model signals
FLY
Why this score
- Diluting shareholders
- Short track record
HWM
Why this score
- Durable high returns
The companies
FLYFirefly Aerospace Inc.
Why now
Aerospace & Defense · market cap $4.5b. Down 57% from 52-week high of $62.17 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +163% — in hypergrowth territory. 10 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $41.60 (implying +56% upside).
Moat
Higher-variance name — the moat signals on the quantitative card are modest, so the durability case rests on execution (turning current growth into durable earnings power) or an un-monetized asset (IP / network effects / first-mover position) rather than an entrenched competitive position.
Risk
Free cash flow is negative (-$326m) — capital raises or debt issuance likely required; dilution / leverage risk. Down 57% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. P/S 15.6x embeds aggressive forward growth — disappointing top-line guidance would compress the multiple hard.
HWMHowmet Aerospace Inc.
Why now
Aerospace & Defense · market cap $115.3b. 7% off the 52-week high of $310.00. Revenue growing +18%, comfortably above the S&P median. PEG 0.80 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 20 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $335.33 (implying +16% upside).
Moat
Net margin 21% sits well above the S&P median (~11%) — suggests structural pricing advantage or cost discipline competitors can't quickly close. ROE 33% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. FCF converts 96% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk
Trailing P/E 62.3x prices in sustained high growth — any quarter that disappoints triggers sharp re-rating. P/S 12.6x embeds aggressive forward growth — disappointing top-line guidance would compress the multiple hard.
Verdict — model-derived comparison
Generating verdict… typically 5–10 seconds
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
Where FLY and HWM diverge
On the headline score the gap is 46.4 points in favor of HWM. They get there differently, though — each leads on a different pillar, so the better pick depends on which you weight.
- QualityFLY 17.6 · HWM 84.6HWM +67.0
- ValueFLY 3.9 · HWM 41.2HWM +37.3
- GrowthFLY 99.8 · HWM 86.4FLY +13.4
Pillars run 0–100 against sector peers, so a score is a statement about a company relative to its own industry rather than to the other name here. A wide Value gap usually means the market already prices the difference in quality or growth — which is the trade-off this comparison comes down to.