COMPARE · Reviewed July 2, 2026
EXPO vs MSA
Verdict: Side-by-side breakdown using the Bull Rankings model. EXPO scored 73, MSA scored 74.3 — MSA ahead by 1.2999999999999972.
EXPO
Exponent, Inc.
73
$60.98
Score gap
1.2999999999999972
MSA leads
MSA
MSA Safety Incorporated
74.3
$171.48
The companies
EXPOExponent, Inc.
Why now
Engineering & Construction · market cap $3.0b. Down 26% from 52-week high of $81.95 — deep drawdown territory. 3 sell-side analysts publish a mean 1-yr target of $81.67 (implying +34% upside).
Moat
Net margin 18% beats the market median by a meaningful margin — the company is keeping more of every revenue dollar than the average S&P constituent. ROE 32% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. FCF converts 104% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk
Mature compounder — the risk is paying up for quality at a moment when growth is decelerating. Watch for sequential revenue + margin trends; the inflection from "compounder" to "ex-compounder" is hard to spot until the multiple already started compressing.
MSAMSA Safety Incorporated
Why now
Security & Protection Services · market cap $6.6b. 18% off the 52-week high of $208.92. PEG 0.99 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 7 sell-side analysts publish a mean 1-yr target of $205.71 (implying +20% upside).
Moat
Net margin 15% beats the market median by a meaningful margin — the company is keeping more of every revenue dollar than the average S&P constituent. ROE 21% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. FCF converts 107% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk
Value re-rating depends on a catalyst. Without one — analyst day, divestiture, margin recovery, capital return — the stock can stay cheap on these multiples for years.
Base grades (each contributes ~14.3% of base composite)
| EXPO | Component | MSA |
|---|---|---|
| C65 | FCF | C65 |
| C+70 | Rev | C+70 |
| A-90 | D/E | B+85 |
| B80 | P/E or P/S | B+85 |
| C65 | PEG | B+85 |
| Supplemental signals · feed the score, not on the row card | ||
| B80 | FCF Yield | B80 |
| A95 | ROE | A-90 |
| 76.4 | Base composite | 80.4 |
Adjustments (signed deltas applied on top of base)
EXPO
insider cluster buying (net +14.0%, 33 txns)+2
Total+2
MSA
GARP sweet spot (PEG <1, positive FCF)+1
insider net buying (net +4.5%)+1
Total+2
DCF cross-check (per-share value vs. live price)
| EXPO upside | Horizon | MSA upside |
|---|---|---|
| -22% | 1Y | -24% |
| -13% | 5Y | -18% |
| +3% | 10Y | -8% |
Verdict — model-derived comparison
Generating verdict… typically 5–10 seconds
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.