Verdict: Side-by-side breakdown using the Bull Rankings model. EXE scored 64.9, NFG scored 55.3 — EXE leads.
Compare another set
EXE
Expand Energy Corporation
Oil & Gas E&P · Quality-Growth
64.9
$88.22 · $20.4B
fundamentals as of
Score gap
9.6
EXE leads
NFG
National Fuel Gas Company
Oil & Gas Integrated · Quality-Growth
55.3
$78.66 · $7.5B
fundamentals as of
At a glance · who leads each dimension, on the model's own rules
CheapestEXE7.6x
Fastest growthEXE+188.8%
Strongest balance sheetEXE0.19
Highest qualityEXE76 / 100
Largest discount to fair valueEXE-49%
Side by side · every name on one set of axes
Growth against the P/E multiple. Up and to the right is cheaper and faster — the quality-growth idea in one picture. Points beyond the axis are pinned to the edge and marked off-scale rather than allowed to compress everything else.
The model, pillar by pillar (0–100 each)
EXE
stronger →← stronger
NFG
76
Qualityreturns · margins · balance sheet
63
50
Growthrevenue & earnings expansion
50
72
Valuevaluation vs sector peers
54
EXE is stronger on 2 of 3 pillars.
Fundamentals, head-to-head
EXE
NFG
$2.5bB
FCF
$222mC
+188.8%A
Rev
+15.1%B+
0.19A-
D/E
0.91C+
7.6xA-
P/E
11.0xB+
0.82B+
PEG
1.55C+
Winner per row is the stronger grade; where grades tie, the better figure breaks it. A true tie or a missing value shows no highlight.
Valuation · DCF cross-check
EXE
NFG
49% below
Price vs fair valuelower is cheaper
106% above
~-10%/yr
Growth the price impliesyr-1 FCF growth, fading to 4% · lower = less priced in
~25%/yr
+87%
1-yr DCF upside
-54%
+97%
5-yr DCF upside
-51%
+112%
10-yr DCF upside
-48%
The DCF is a cross-check on intrinsic value, separate from the quality-growth score above.
Model signals
EXE
Why this score
Buying back stock
Cut its dividend
Cyclical growth
NFG
Why this score
Diluting shareholders
Cyclical growth
The companies
EXEExpand Energy Corporation
Oil & Gas E&P · $88.22 · beta 0.40
Why now
Oil & Gas E&P · market cap $20.4b. Down 30% from 52-week high of $126.62 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +189% — in hypergrowth territory. PEG 0.82 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 27 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $123.22 (implying +40% upside).
Moat
Net margin 22% sits well above the S&P median (~11%) — suggests structural pricing advantage or cost discipline competitors can't quickly close. ROE 15% meets the long-run market sustainable threshold — solid but not differentiated; the durability comes from elsewhere.
Risk
Down 30% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Reserve-replacement treadmill — every barrel or ounce extracted has to be replaced through exploration or acquisition; underspending on replacement reserves shows up in production declines 2-3 years out.
NFGNational Fuel Gas Company
Oil & Gas Integrated · $78.66 · beta 0.41
Why now
Oil & Gas Integrated · market cap $7.5b. 19% off the 52-week high of $97.06. Revenue growing +15%, comfortably above the S&P median.
Moat
Net margin 27% sits well above the S&P median (~11%) — suggests structural pricing advantage or cost discipline competitors can't quickly close. ROE 17% is above 15% — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately.
Risk
Production-cost sensitivity — top-quartile cost producers generate cash through the cycle while marginal producers burn it; watch the cost-per-unit trend, not just headline revenue.
Verdict — model-derived comparison
Generating verdict… typically 5–10 seconds
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
Where EXE and NFG diverge
On the headline score the gap is 9.6 points in favor of EXE. The widest single difference is Value, where EXE leads by 18.0 points.
ValueEXE 72.1 · NFG 54.1EXE +18.0
QualityEXE 75.7 · NFG 62.6EXE +13.1
GrowthEXE 50.0 · NFG 50.0level
Pillars run 0–100. Value is judged against each company's own sector, so a Value score is a statement about a company relative to its own industry rather than to the other name here. A wide Value gap usually means the market already prices the difference in quality or growth — which is the trade-off this comparison comes down to.
Common questions
Is EXE or NFG the better stock?
EXE scores higher: EXE 64.9, NFG 55.3 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth score, which blends business quality, growth and valuation into one number. A higher score means a stronger business at a more reasonable price — it is not a price target or a recommendation.
Where do EXE and NFG differ most?
The widest gap is value, where EXE leads by 18 points on the 0–100 pillar scale. EXE also leads quality, while growth is effectively level between them.
How are EXE and NFG scored?
Each carries the same 0–100 quality-growth score used everywhere on the site, built from three pillars — quality (profitability and returns on capital), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (what you pay for them) — combined as a geometric mean, so a weak pillar cannot be papered over by a strong one.
How current is this comparison?
The whole universe is re-scored every trading day after the US market close, so the scores and fundamentals here reflect the latest published edition.