COMPARE · Reviewed July 29, 2026
CVI vs UGP
Verdict: Side-by-side breakdown using the Bull Rankings model. CVI scored 60.7, UGP scored 50.0 — CVI leads.
Compare another set
CVI
CVR Energy, Inc.
60.7
$38.26 · $3.8B
fundamentals as of
Score gap
10.7
CVI leads
UGP
Ultrapar Participacoes SA
50
$6.45 · $34.9B
The model, pillar by pillar (0–100 each)
CVI
stronger →← stronger
UGP
63
Qualityreturns · margins · balance sheet
52
50
Growthrevenue & earnings expansion
61
72
Valuevaluation vs sector peers
39
CVI is stronger on 2 of 3 pillars.
Fundamentals, head-to-head
CVI
UGP
$351mC
FCF
—
+17.9%B+
Rev
+6.9%C+
2.45D
D/E
1.39C+
0.5xA
P/S
—
0.71A-
PEG
1.71C+
—
P/E
11.7xA-
Winner per row is the stronger grade in our model; a tie or a missing value shows no highlight.
Valuation · DCF cross-check
CVI
UGP
60% below
Price vs fair valuelower is cheaper
—
~-7%/yr
Growth the price implies10-yr FCF · lower = less priced in
—
+90%
1-yr DCF upside
—
+151%
5-yr DCF upside
—
+279%
10-yr DCF upside
—
The DCF is a cross-check on intrinsic value, separate from the quality-growth score above.
Model signals
CVI
Why this score
- Cyclical growth
UGP
Why this score
- Raising its dividend
The companies
CVICVR Energy, Inc.
Why now
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · market cap $3.8b. 8% off the 52-week high of $41.67. Revenue growing +18%, comfortably above the S&P median. PEG 0.71 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 5 sell-side analysts rate this an Underperform with a mean 1-yr target of $29.40 (implying -23% upside).
Moat
ROE 13% meets the long-run market sustainable threshold — solid but not differentiated; the durability comes from elsewhere. Free cash flow runs well ahead of reported net income — non-cash charges (depreciation, intangible amortization) are holding down GAAP earnings while cash generation stays strong.
Risk
D/E 2.45 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Net margin 0.8% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first. Production-cost sensitivity — top-quartile cost producers generate cash through the cycle while marginal producers burn it; watch the cost-per-unit trend, not just headline revenue.
UGPUltrapar Participacoes SA
Why now
Retail · market cap $34.9b. Down 81% from 52-week high of $33.39 — deep drawdown territory.
Moat
ROE 19% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately.
Risk
Down 81% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Net margin 2.1% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first.
Verdict — model-derived comparison
Generating verdict… typically 5–10 seconds
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.