Verdict: Side-by-side breakdown using the Bull Rankings model. CHDN scored 58.0, EXPE scored 67.6 — EXPE leads.
Compare another set
CHDN
Churchill Downs Incorporated
Gambling · Quality-Growth
58
$79.96 · $5.6B
fundamentals as of
Score gap
9.6
EXPE leads
EXPE
Expedia Group, Inc.
Travel Services · Quality-Growth
67.6
$274.22 · $32.9B
fundamentals as of
At a glance · who leads each dimension, on the model's own rules
CheapestCHDN13.0x
Fastest growthEXPE+7.6%
Strongest balance sheetEXPE2.30
Highest qualityEXPE87 / 100
Largest discount to fair valueEXPE-52%
Side by side · every name on one set of axes
Growth against the P/E multiple. Up and to the right is cheaper and faster — the quality-growth idea in one picture. Points beyond the axis are pinned to the edge and marked off-scale rather than allowed to compress everything else.
The model, pillar by pillar (0–100 each)
CHDN
stronger →← stronger
EXPE
67
Qualityreturns · margins · balance sheet
87
50
Growthrevenue & earnings expansion
50
58
Valuevaluation vs sector peers
71
EXPE is stronger on 2 of 3 pillars.
Fundamentals, head-to-head
CHDN
EXPE
$383mC
FCF
$4.5bB
+7.0%B
Rev
+7.6%B
3.49C
D/E
2.30C
13.0xA-
P/E
17.1xB
1.69C+
PEG
0.71A-
Winner per row is the stronger grade; where grades tie, the better figure breaks it. A true tie or a missing value shows no highlight.
Valuation · DCF cross-check
CHDN
EXPE
25% below
Price vs fair valuelower is cheaper
52% below
~-1%/yr
Growth the price impliesyr-1 FCF growth, fading to 4% · lower = less priced in
~-7%/yr
+28%
1-yr DCF upside
+76%
+34%
5-yr DCF upside
+106%
+43%
10-yr DCF upside
+158%
The DCF is a cross-check on intrinsic value, separate from the quality-growth score above.
Model signals
CHDN
Why this score
Raising its dividend
Cyclical growth
EXPE
Why this score
Buying back stock
Raising its dividend
Durable high returns
Cyclical growth
The companies
CHDNChurchill Downs Incorporated
Gambling · $79.96 · beta 0.77
Why now
Gambling · market cap $5.6b. Down 32% from 52-week high of $118.35 — deep drawdown territory. 12 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $128.17 (implying +60% upside).
Moat
Net margin 14% beats the market median by a meaningful margin — the company is keeping more of every revenue dollar than the average S&P constituent. ROE 34% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which.
Risk
D/E 3.49 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Down 32% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up.
EXPEExpedia Group, Inc.
Travel Services · $274.22 · beta 1.36
Why now
Travel Services · market cap $32.9b. 20% off the 52-week high of $342.00. PEG 0.71 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 35 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $336.14 (implying +23% upside).
Moat
Net margin 13% beats the market median by a meaningful margin — the company is keeping more of every revenue dollar than the average S&P constituent. ROE 89% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. Free cash flow runs well ahead of reported net income, mostly because of cash released from working capital ($1.5b) — a release that doesn't repeat every year the way earnings can.
Risk
D/E 2.30 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer.
Verdict — model-derived comparison
Generating verdict… typically 5–10 seconds
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
Where CHDN and EXPE diverge
On the headline score the gap is 9.6 points in favor of EXPE. The widest single difference is Quality, where EXPE leads by 19.9 points.
QualityCHDN 66.8 · EXPE 86.7EXPE +19.9
ValueCHDN 58.5 · EXPE 71.2EXPE +12.7
GrowthCHDN 50.0 · EXPE 50.0level
Pillars run 0–100. Value is judged against each company's own sector, so a Value score is a statement about a company relative to its own industry rather than to the other name here. A wide Value gap usually means the market already prices the difference in quality or growth — which is the trade-off this comparison comes down to.
Common questions
Is EXPE or CHDN the better stock?
EXPE scores higher: EXPE 67.6, CHDN 58.0 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth score, which blends business quality, growth and valuation into one number. A higher score means a stronger business at a more reasonable price — it is not a price target or a recommendation.
Where do EXPE and CHDN differ most?
The widest gap is quality, where EXPE leads by 20 points on the 0–100 pillar scale. EXPE also leads value, while growth is effectively level between them.
How are EXPE and CHDN scored?
Each carries the same 0–100 quality-growth score used everywhere on the site, built from three pillars — quality (profitability and returns on capital), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (what you pay for them) — combined as a geometric mean, so a weak pillar cannot be papered over by a strong one.
How current is this comparison?
The whole universe is re-scored every trading day after the US market close, so the scores and fundamentals here reflect the latest published edition.