COMPARE · Reviewed July 29, 2026
BALL vs SW
Verdict: Side-by-side breakdown using the Bull Rankings model. BALL scored 56.9, SW scored 59.9 — SW leads.
Compare another set
BALL
Ball Corporation
56.9
$65.11 · $17.3B
fundamentals as of
Score gap
3.0
SW leads
SW
Smurfit Westrock Plc
59.9
$47.42 · $24.9B
fundamentals as of
The model, pillar by pillar (0–100 each)
BALL
stronger →← stronger
SW
62
Qualityreturns · margins · balance sheet
44
74
Growthrevenue & earnings expansion
97
40
Valuevaluation vs sector peers
50
SW is stronger on 2 of 3 pillars.
Fundamentals, head-to-head
BALL
SW
$596mC+
FCF
$1.0bC+
+13.7%B+
Rev
+20.9%A-
1.46C+
D/E
0.79B
19.0xB+
P/E
50.4xC
1.37B
PEG
0.26A
Winner per row is the stronger grade in our model; a tie or a missing value shows no highlight.
Valuation · DCF cross-check
BALL
SW
57% above
Price vs fair valuelower is cheaper
2% below
~20%/yr
Growth the price implies10-yr FCF · lower = less priced in
~14%/yr
-44%
1-yr DCF upside
-23%
-36%
5-yr DCF upside
+2%
-24%
10-yr DCF upside
+53%
The DCF is a cross-check on intrinsic value, separate from the quality-growth score above.
Model signals
BALL
Why this score
- Buying back stock
- Durable high returns
SW
Why this score
- Cut its dividend
The companies
BALLBall Corporation
Why now
Packaging & Containers · market cap $17.3b. 5% off the 52-week high of $68.29. Revenue growing +14%, comfortably above the S&P median. 14 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $71.14 (implying +9% upside).
Moat
ROE 17% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately.
Risk
Mature compounder — the risk is paying up for quality at a moment when growth is decelerating. Watch for sequential revenue + margin trends; the inflection from "compounder" to "ex-compounder" is hard to spot until the multiple already started compressing.
SWSmurfit Westrock Plc
Why now
Packaging & Containers · market cap $24.9b. 10% off the 52-week high of $52.65. Revenue growing +21%, comfortably above the S&P median. PEG 0.26 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 15 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $55.19 (implying +16% upside).
Moat
Free cash flow runs well ahead of reported net income — non-cash charges (depreciation, intangible amortization) are holding down GAAP earnings while cash generation stays strong.
Risk
Trailing P/E 50.4x prices in sustained high growth — any quarter that disappoints triggers sharp re-rating. Net margin 1.2% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first. ROE 2% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate.
Verdict — model-derived comparison
Generating verdict… typically 5–10 seconds
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.