AYA vs OGC

Silver · market cap $2.8b. 11% off the 52-week high of $22.00. Revenue growing +417% — in hypergrowth territory. PEG 0.08 — paying under fair value for the growth rate.

Net margin 30% is exceptional — pricing-power territory rare outside premium software, branded staples, and specialty pharma. ROE 24% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately.

Beta 1.71 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return. Trailing P/E 33x sits well above the S&P median (~20x) — multiple compression is a real risk if revenue growth decelerates. Hedge-book exposure — many commodity producers hedge forward production; if the hedge book is concentrated at prices well below spot, the upside the market expects is already locked away.

Gold · market cap $5.8b. Down 40% from 52-week high of $43.33 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +46% — in hypergrowth territory. PEG 0.17 — paying under fair value for the growth rate.

Net margin 34% is exceptional — pricing-power territory rare outside premium software, branded staples, and specialty pharma. ROE 35% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. Mining moat is reserve quality + extraction cost per unit — top-quartile cost producers generate cash through the commodity cycle while marginal producers burn it.

Down 40% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Beta 1.47 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return. Reserve-replacement treadmill — every barrel or ounce extracted has to be replaced through exploration or acquisition; underspending on replacement reserves shows up in production declines 2-3 years out.