COMPARE · Reviewed July 2, 2026
AYA vs FSM
Verdict: Side-by-side breakdown using the Bull Rankings model. AYA scored 70.5, FSM scored 72 — FSM ahead by 1.5.
AYA
Aya Gold & Silver Inc.
70.5
$19.62
Score gap
1.5
FSM leads
FSM
Fortuna Mining Corp.
72
$8.72
The companies
AYAAya Gold & Silver Inc.
Why now
Silver · market cap $2.8b. 11% off the 52-week high of $22.00. Revenue growing +417% — in hypergrowth territory. PEG 0.08 — paying under fair value for the growth rate.
Moat
Net margin 30% is exceptional — pricing-power territory rare outside premium software, branded staples, and specialty pharma. ROE 24% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately.
Risk
Beta 1.71 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return. Trailing P/E 33x sits well above the S&P median (~20x) — multiple compression is a real risk if revenue growth decelerates. Hedge-book exposure — many commodity producers hedge forward production; if the hedge book is concentrated at prices well below spot, the upside the market expects is already locked away.
FSMFortuna Mining Corp.
Why now
Gold · market cap $2.6b. Down 37% from 52-week high of $13.85 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +40% — in hypergrowth territory. PEG 0.20 — paying under fair value for the growth rate.
Moat
Net margin 31% is exceptional — pricing-power territory rare outside premium software, branded staples, and specialty pharma. ROE 22% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. FCF converts 164% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk
Down 37% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Beta 2.08 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return. Production-cost sensitivity — top-quartile cost producers generate cash through the cycle while marginal producers burn it; watch the cost-per-unit trend, not just headline revenue.
Base grades (each contributes ~14.3% of base composite)
| AYA | Component | FSM |
|---|---|---|
| C-60 | FCF | C+70 |
| A95 | Rev | A95 |
| B+85 | D/E | A-90 |
| C65 | P/E or P/S | A95 |
| A95 | PEG | A95 |
| Supplemental signals · feed the score, not on the row card | ||
| C+70 | FCF Yield | A95 |
| A-90 | ROE | A-90 |
| 81.6 | Base composite | 90.6 |
Adjustments (signed deltas applied on top of base)
AYA
GARP sweet spot (PEG <1, positive FCF)+1
DCF cross-check (avg upside -69%)-2
Total-1
FSM
compounder synergy (FCF yield ≥5% + ROE ≥15% + D/E <1)+4
GARP sweet spot (PEG <1, positive FCF)+1
forward P/E cheaper (8 → 5)+1
DCF cross-check (avg upside 90%)+1
Total+7
DCF cross-check (per-share value vs. live price)
| AYA upside | Horizon | FSM upside |
|---|---|---|
| -77% | 1Y | +86% |
| -71% | 5Y | +90% |
| -58% | 10Y | +95% |
Verdict — model-derived comparison
Generating verdict… typically 5–10 seconds
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.