AU vs OGC

Gold · market cap $42.8b. Down 34% from 52-week high of $129.14 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +71% — in hypergrowth territory. PEG 0.78 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 8 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $118.38 (implying +40% upside).

Net margin 31% is exceptional — pricing-power territory rare outside premium software, branded staples, and specialty pharma. ROE 43% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. FCF converts 121% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.

Down 34% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Reserve-replacement treadmill — every barrel or ounce extracted has to be replaced through exploration or acquisition; underspending on replacement reserves shows up in production declines 2-3 years out.

Gold · market cap $5.8b. Down 40% from 52-week high of $43.33 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +46% — in hypergrowth territory. PEG 0.17 — paying under fair value for the growth rate.

Net margin 34% is exceptional — pricing-power territory rare outside premium software, branded staples, and specialty pharma. ROE 35% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. Mining moat is reserve quality + extraction cost per unit — top-quartile cost producers generate cash through the commodity cycle while marginal producers burn it.

Down 40% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Beta 1.47 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return. Reserve-replacement treadmill — every barrel or ounce extracted has to be replaced through exploration or acquisition; underspending on replacement reserves shows up in production declines 2-3 years out.