COMPARE · Reviewed July 2, 2026
AU vs AYA
Verdict: Side-by-side breakdown using the Bull Rankings model. AU scored 68.8, AYA scored 70.5 — AYA ahead by 1.7000000000000028.
AU
AngloGold Ashanti plc
68.8
$84.65
Score gap
1.7000000000000028
AYA leads
AYA
Aya Gold & Silver Inc.
70.5
$19.62
The companies
AUAngloGold Ashanti plc
Why now
Gold · market cap $42.8b. Down 34% from 52-week high of $129.14 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +71% — in hypergrowth territory. PEG 0.78 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 8 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $118.38 (implying +40% upside).
Moat
Net margin 31% is exceptional — pricing-power territory rare outside premium software, branded staples, and specialty pharma. ROE 43% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. FCF converts 121% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk
Down 34% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Reserve-replacement treadmill — every barrel or ounce extracted has to be replaced through exploration or acquisition; underspending on replacement reserves shows up in production declines 2-3 years out.
AYAAya Gold & Silver Inc.
Why now
Silver · market cap $2.8b. 11% off the 52-week high of $22.00. Revenue growing +417% — in hypergrowth territory. PEG 0.08 — paying under fair value for the growth rate.
Moat
Net margin 30% is exceptional — pricing-power territory rare outside premium software, branded staples, and specialty pharma. ROE 24% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately.
Risk
Beta 1.71 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return. Trailing P/E 33x sits well above the S&P median (~20x) — multiple compression is a real risk if revenue growth decelerates. Hedge-book exposure — many commodity producers hedge forward production; if the hedge book is concentrated at prices well below spot, the upside the market expects is already locked away.
Base grades (each contributes ~14.3% of base composite)
| AU | Component | AYA |
|---|---|---|
| B80 | FCF | C-60 |
| A95 | Rev | A95 |
| B+85 | D/E | B+85 |
| A-90 | P/E or P/S | C65 |
| A-90 | PEG | A95 |
| Supplemental signals · feed the score, not on the row card | ||
| A-90 | FCF Yield | C+70 |
| A95 | ROE | A-90 |
| 89.4 | Base composite | 81.6 |
Adjustments (signed deltas applied on top of base)
AU
compounder synergy (FCF yield ≥5% + ROE ≥15% + D/E <1)+4
GARP sweet spot (PEG <1, positive FCF)+1
analyst consensus bullish (88% buy/strong-buy)+2
forward P/E cheaper (12 → 8)+1
DCF cross-check (avg upside 157%)+2
stacked-bonus cap (+10 → 9.8)-0.15153137095996172
Total+9.848468629040038
AYA
GARP sweet spot (PEG <1, positive FCF)+1
DCF cross-check (avg upside -69%)-2
Total-1
DCF cross-check (per-share value vs. live price)
| AU upside | Horizon | AYA upside |
|---|---|---|
| +120% | 1Y | -77% |
| +150% | 5Y | -71% |
| +201% | 10Y | -58% |
Verdict — model-derived comparison
Generating verdict… typically 5–10 seconds
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.