COMPARE · Reviewed July 2, 2026
APP vs MTCH
Verdict: Side-by-side breakdown using the Bull Rankings model. APP scored 72.9, MTCH scored 72.3 — APP ahead by 0.6000000000000085.
APP
AppLovin Corporation
72.9
$527.06
Score gap
0.6000000000000085
APP leads
MTCH
Match Group, Inc.
72.3
$37.90
The companies
APPAppLovin Corporation
Why now
Advertising Agencies · market cap $177.1b. Down 29% from 52-week high of $745.61 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +70% — in hypergrowth territory. 30 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $654.47 (implying +24% upside).
Moat
Net margin 64% is exceptional — pricing-power territory rare outside premium software, branded staples, and specialty pharma. FCF converts 112% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined. $177.1b market cap gives the company enough scale to absorb fixed costs that subscale competitors can't, without yet being so large that growth has to come from acquisition.
Risk
Beta 2.46 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return. Trailing P/E 46x sits well above the S&P median (~20x) — multiple compression is a real risk if revenue growth decelerates. P/S 28.7x embeds aggressive forward growth — disappointing top-line guidance would compress the multiple hard.
MTCHMatch Group, Inc.
Why now
Internet Content & Information · market cap $8.8b. 3% off the 52-week high of $39.20. PEG 0.35 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 16 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $41.13 (implying +9% upside).
Moat
ROE 19% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately.
Risk
Currently unprofitable (margin -1.2%) — path to GAAP profitability is the core thesis risk.
Base grades (each contributes ~14.3% of base composite)
| APP | Component | MTCH |
|---|---|---|
| B80 | FCF | C+70 |
| A95 | Rev | C65 |
| C65 | D/E | C65 |
| C65 | P/E or P/S | B+85 |
| B80 | PEG | A95 |
| Supplemental signals · feed the score, not on the row card | ||
| C+70 | FCF Yield | A95 |
| C65 | ROE | B+85 |
| 76.7 | Base composite | 81.3 |
Adjustments (signed deltas applied on top of base)
APP
hypergrowth premium (rev +70%)+2
analyst consensus bullish (91% buy/strong-buy)+2
forward P/E cheaper (46 → 24)+1
DCF cross-check (avg upside -64%)-2
ROE truncated (buyback-depleted equity)-1
Total+2
MTCH
GARP sweet spot (PEG <1, positive FCF)+1
covered yield (2.1% at 29% payout)+1
insider cluster buying (net +20.6%, 34 txns)+2
forward P/E cheaper (14 → 9)+1
DCF cross-check (avg upside 55%)+1
Total+6
DCF cross-check (per-share value vs. live price)
| APP upside | Horizon | MTCH upside |
|---|---|---|
| -74% | 1Y | +43% |
| -66% | 5Y | +53% |
| -52% | 10Y | +68% |
Verdict — model-derived comparison
Generating verdict… typically 5–10 seconds
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.