COMPARE · Reviewed August 4, 2026
AES vs VST
Verdict: Side-by-side breakdown using the Bull Rankings model. AES scored 64.7, VST scored 73.2 — VST leads.
Compare another set
Different reporting periods. AES's fundamentals are as of June 2026, but VST's are as of March 2026 — a 3-month gap. Growth, margin and valuation figures below therefore describe different windows and aren't strictly like-for-like.
AES
The AES Corporation
64.7
$14.68 · $10.5B
fundamentals as of
Score gap
8.5
VST leads
VST
Vistra Corp.
73.2
$143.23 · $48.3B
fundamentals as of
The model, pillar by pillar (0–100 each)
AES
stronger →← stronger
VST
59
Qualityreturns · margins · balance sheet
64
71
Growthrevenue & earnings expansion
89
64
Valuevaluation vs sector peers
69
VST is stronger on 3 of 3 pillars.
Fundamentals, head-to-head
AES
VST
-$1.7bF
FCF
$1.8bC+
+8.5%B
Rev
+15.7%B+
2.60D
D/E
3.67D
0.8xA
P/S
—
0.81B+
PEG
0.44A
—
P/E
24.0xC
Winner per row is the stronger grade in our model; a tie or a missing value shows no highlight.
Valuation · DCF cross-check
AES
VST
—
Price vs fair valuelower is cheaper
73% above
—
Growth the price implies10-yr FCF · lower = less priced in
~27%/yr
—
1-yr DCF upside
-53%
—
5-yr DCF upside
-42%
—
10-yr DCF upside
-24%
The DCF is a cross-check on intrinsic value, separate from the quality-growth score above.
Model signals
AES
Why this score
- Short track record
VST
No notable signals flagged.
The companies
AESThe AES Corporation
Why now
Utilities - Diversified · market cap $10.5b. 17% off the 52-week high of $17.65. PEG 0.81 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 8 sell-side analysts rate this a Hold with a mean 1-yr target of $15.00 (implying +2% upside).
Moat
Net margin 14% beats the market median by a meaningful margin — the company is keeping more of every revenue dollar than the average S&P constituent. ROE 38% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which.
Risk
D/E 2.60 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Free cash flow is negative (-$1.7b) — capital raises or debt issuance likely required; dilution / leverage risk.
VSTVistra Corp.
Why now
Utilities - Independent Power Producers · market cap $48.3b. Down 35% from 52-week high of $219.82 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +16%, comfortably above the S&P median. PEG 0.44 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 18 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $221.61 (implying +55% upside).
Moat
Net margin 12% beats the market median by a meaningful margin — the company is keeping more of every revenue dollar than the average S&P constituent. ROE 40% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which.
Risk
D/E 3.67 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Down 35% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Beta 1.43 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return.
Verdict — model-derived comparison
Generating verdict… typically 5–10 seconds
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.