COMPARE · Reviewed July 2, 2026
ADSK vs NVDA
Verdict: Side-by-side breakdown using the Bull Rankings model. ADSK scored 86.1, NVDA scored 86.4 — NVDA ahead by 0.30000000000001137.
ADSK
Autodesk, Inc.
86.1
$207.48
Score gap
0.30000000000001137
NVDA leads
NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation
86.4
$194.83
The companies
ADSKAutodesk, Inc.
Why now
Software - Application · market cap $43.8b. Down 37% from 52-week high of $329.09 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +18%, comfortably above the S&P median. PEG 0.75 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 33 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $318.53 (implying +54% upside).
Moat
Net margin 19% beats the market median by a meaningful margin — the company is keeping more of every revenue dollar than the average S&P constituent. ROE 46% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. FCF converts 187% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk
Down 37% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Trailing P/E 30x sits well above the S&P median (~20x) — multiple compression is a real risk if revenue growth decelerates. Software — competitive moat is durable until it isn't; watch net revenue retention, gross margin trends, and any new market entrant with a fundamentally lower price point.
NVDANVIDIA Corporation
Why now
Semiconductors · market cap $4.7T. 18% off the 52-week high of $236.54. Revenue growing +65% — in hypergrowth territory. PEG 0.61 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 58 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $301.62 (implying +55% upside).
Moat
Net margin 63% is exceptional — pricing-power territory rare outside premium software, branded staples, and specialty pharma. ROE 82% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. $4.7T market cap places it among the largest companies in the sector — distribution, R&D, and customer-acquisition costs amortize across a base peers can't replicate.
Risk
Beta 2.20 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return. P/S 18.6x embeds aggressive forward growth — disappointing top-line guidance would compress the multiple hard. Semiconductor cyclicality — inventory corrections compress margins faster than analysts model. Monitor channel inventory and book-to-bill ratios as leading indicators.
Base grades (each contributes ~14.3% of base composite)
| ADSK | Component | NVDA |
|---|---|---|
| B80 | FCF | A95 |
| B+85 | Rev | A95 |
| C+70 | D/E | A-90 |
| B80 | P/E or P/S | B80 |
| A-90 | PEG | A-90 |
| Supplemental signals · feed the score, not on the row card | ||
| B+85 | FCF Yield | C+70 |
| A95 | ROE | A95 |
| 84 | Base composite | 87 |
Adjustments (signed deltas applied on top of base)
ADSK
compounder synergy (FCF yield ≥5% + ROE ≥15% + D/E <1)+4
GARP sweet spot (PEG <1, positive FCF)+1
analyst consensus bullish (91% buy/strong-buy)+2
Total+7
NVDA
GARP sweet spot (PEG <1, positive FCF)+1
analyst consensus bullish (95% buy/strong-buy)+2
insider cluster buying (net +6.4%, 40 txns)+2
forward P/E cheaper (30 → 15)+1
mild accruals (OCF/NI 0.79)-1
DCF cross-check (avg upside -64%)-2
ROE truncated (buyback-depleted equity)-1
Total+2
DCF cross-check (per-share value vs. live price)
| ADSK upside | Horizon | NVDA upside |
|---|---|---|
| -18% | 1Y | -74% |
| -7% | 5Y | -66% |
| +10% | 10Y | -52% |
Verdict — model-derived comparison
Generating verdict… typically 5–10 seconds
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.