This refresh
Data-driven refresh August 27, 2026. The Top Picks are the Bull Rankings quality-growth screen — strong, growing businesses with durable returns at a fair price (PEG / EV-EBIT vs sector, ROIC, free cash flow). Scanned every US-listed common stock on NYSE, NASDAQ, NYSE American, and NYSE Arca (5,232 tickers); 1,729 scored on the quality-growth model (financials route to a separate card). Fundamentals from Yahoo Finance quoteSummary reconciled with as-reported SEC EDGAR filings; narrative authored by Groq (with Gemini and data-driven fallbacks).
Top Picks — quality compounders at a fair price
1. ADBE — Adobe Inc. · score 88.9
Software - Application · price $289.15 · 1Y $270.61 · 5Y $396.19 · 10Y $587.73
FCF $10.3b A- · Rev +11.5% B · D/E 0.61 C+ · P/E 16.6x A- · PEG 0.67 A-
Why now. Adobe’s Digital Media suite – especially Photoshop and Premiere – continues to lock in creators and marketers, driving a 11.5% YoY revenue growth and a 28.7% profit margin that fuels a $10.3B free‑cash‑flow engine; with a market cap of $114.9B and a PE of 16.6, the stock trades at a modest multiple for a business delivering a 62.8% ROE. The Bull Rankings model gives Adobe a Quality‑growth score of 88.9, flagging Quality as its strongest pillar, so the thesis rests on the durable cash‑generating power of its high‑margin subscription model compounding year over year.
Moat. The subscription‑based Creative Cloud platform creates a high switching cost for photographers, video editors and designers, who rely on integrated tools and regular feature updates; this lock‑in underpins Adobe’s 62.8% ROE, reflecting pricing power from category leadership in digital content creation.
Risk. A bear sees the 1.4 beta and a PE of 16.6 as signs that the stock is over‑leveraged on growth expectations, especially as revenue growth has slowed to 11.5% YoY and the reverse‑DCF implies only ~3% annual FCF growth – far below historical margins – meaning any further deceleration or a rise in debt‑to‑equity above 0.61 could crush the valuation.
Horizon. 1-3 yr $270.61 (analyst consensus (n=34)) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $396.19 at ~7% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $587.73 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
2. HRMY — Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. · score 88.4
Biotechnology · price $39.87 · 1Y $47.36 · 5Y $69.35 · 10Y $102.87
FCF $355m C · Rev +24.3% A- · D/E 0.16 B+ · P/E 12.9x A- · PEG 0.46 A
Why now. The bull case hinges on WAKIX’s entrenched position in the U.S. narcolepsy market, driving 24.3% YoY revenue growth, 18.9% profit margin and a lean 0.16 debt‑to‑equity that fuels a modest 12.9× P/E—a rare cheapness for a growth biotech. Our Bull Rankings model rates HRMY 88.4 on the quality‑growth scale, with Value as the strongest pillar, confirming that the stock is undervalued relative to its growth engine. The thesis rests on scaling WAKIX and the imminent Phase 3 read‑out for Prader‑Willi Syndrome, which will lock in the compounding engine.
Moat. WAKIX’s novel pitolisant mechanism is protected by robust U.S. patents and exclusive FDA approval, creating high switching costs for narcolepsy patients and limiting generic entry. This IP shield, combined with the company’s 18.1% ROE, stems from pricing power in a niche neurological franchise that few competitors can replicate quickly.
Risk. The bear case centers on execution risk: a miss in the Phase 3 PWS trial would strip HRMY of its next growth catalyst, while the reverse‑DCF implies a -17% annual free‑cash‑flow growth rate—far below the 24.3% revenue expansion, suggesting the market may be over‑optimistic. A sustained slowdown would compress the 12.9× P/E and trigger a sell‑off, confirming the downside.
Horizon. 1-3 yr $47.36 (analyst consensus (n=11)) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $69.35 at ~12% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $102.87 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
3. NBIX — Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. · score 88.1
Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · price $155.92 · 1Y $211.57 · 5Y $309.76 · 10Y $459.51
FCF $870m C+ · Rev +34.4% A · D/E 0.12 B+ · P/E 22.8x B+ · PEG 0.45 A
Why now. NBIX is poised to compound earnings by leveraging INGREZZA’s expanding indication set in tardive dyskinesia and Huntington’s disease, driving a 34.4% revenue growth and sustaining a 20.9% profit margin. The business’s PE of 22.8 reflects premium pricing power that can be amplified as the unmet‑need market for movement‑disorder therapies widens, making the upside hinge on continued market share capture.
Moat. The company’s moat rests on FDA‑approved, specialty‑grade products like INGREZZA and Orilissa, which enjoy strong physician adoption and 12‑year data exclusivity, creating high switching costs for patients and insurers. This pricing power translates into a near‑20% ROE, underscoring the durable cash‑generating advantage of its niche therapeutic franchises.
Risk. The bull case is vulnerable to a slowdown in specialty‑drug adoption or a competitive launch that erodes INGREZZA’s market share, and the current PE of 22.8 already prices in aggressive growth; a deceleration to below the historical 34% revenue pace would force the stock toward its 52‑week low of $122.14. A miss on the implied 8% free‑cash‑flow growth in the reverse DCF would confirm the bear thesis.
Horizon. 1-3 yr $211.57 (analyst consensus (n=27)) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $309.76 at ~15% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $459.51 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
4. DLO — DLocal Limited · score 87.9
Software - Infrastructure · price $15.14 · 1Y $18.40 · 5Y $26.94 · 10Y $39.96
FCF $413m C · Rev +46.6% A · D/E 0.12 B+ · P/E 22.3x B+ · PEG 0.70 A-
Why now. DLocal is a high-quality compounder, driven by its essential payment processing services for global merchants expanding into diverse markets, offering hundreds of alternative payment methods. The company's exceptional profitability is evident in its 18% profit margin and robust $413m in free cash flow, yet it trades at a compelling 0.7 PEG ratio. Our model's Quality-growth score of 87.9/100, anchored by a Growth pillar of 98, underscores this momentum, while the implied ~-7%/yr FCF growth in our reverse DCF suggests the market dramatically undervalues its actual 46.6% revenue growth. The crux is the persistent demand for localized payment solutions in emerging markets, which DLocal is uniquely positioned to capture.
Moat. DLocal's durable edge stems from its deeply integrated payment processing services, offering hundreds of alternative payment methods (APMs) essential for global merchants to operate in diverse markets. This specialized infrastructure creates high switching costs for clients, who rely on DLocal for seamless cross-border and local-to-local transactions, making it difficult for competitors to replicate. This proprietary network and operational expertise contribute directly to its impressive 34.6% Return on Equity, demonstrating significant pricing power within its niche.
Risk. The primary bear case centers on potential dilution and the inherent sensitivity of payment processing volumes to economic cycles in its key end markets like commerce, streaming, and ride-hailing. Our Bull Rankings model flags "Diluting shareholders (caution)," indicating a potential drag on per-share value despite strong top-line growth. While the P/E TTM of 22.3 isn't extreme, our model's weakest pillar being Value (81) suggests limited margin of safety if growth falters. A sustained deceleration in revenue growth below 30% for two consecutive quarters, coupled with increasing share count, would confirm the bear thesis.
Horizon. 1-3 yr $18.40 (analyst consensus (n=10)) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $26.94 at ~12% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $39.96 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
5. NVDA — NVIDIA Corporation · score 86
Semiconductors · price $227.98 · 1Y $305.79 · 5Y $447.71 · 10Y $664.15
FCF $127.0b A · Rev +83.4% A · D/E 0.07 A- · P/E 35.0x B · PEG 0.59 A-
Why now. NVIDIA’s AI‑centric Compute & Networking platform is exploding, driving an 83.4% YoY revenue growth and a 63.7% profit margin that fuels an unprecedented 84.2% ROE. Our Bull Rankings model gives the stock an 86/100 quality‑growth score, with Growth as the strongest pillar, confirming that the compounding engine lives in the data‑center AI infrastructure business. The thesis hinges on that growth staying ahead of the 49% FCF‑growth rate implied by today’s price.
Moat. The moat lives in NVIDIA’s proprietary GPU architecture that powers the Compute & Networking segment, a must‑have for hyperscale data‑center customers who face massive switching costs and cannot replicate NVIDIA’s software stack. This pricing power translates into the 84.2% ROE, far above peers, and a defensible lead in AI acceleration that rivals cannot quickly match.
Risk. The stock trades at a lofty PE of 35 and a beta of 2.21, meaning any slowdown in AI spend or a market pull‑back would punish the share price hard; the reverse‑DCF assumes 49% annual FCF growth, far above the already blistering 83.4% revenue growth, so a modest deceleration would invalidate the valuation. A breach of the 52‑week low ($164.07) would signal that the growth premium is evaporating and the bull case collapses.
Horizon. 1-3 yr $305.79 (analyst consensus (n=58)) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $447.71 at ~14% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $664.15 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
6. PGY — Pagaya Technologies Ltd. · score 86
Software - Infrastructure · price $23.26 · 1Y $29.20 · 5Y $42.75 · 10Y $63.42
FCF $252m C · Rev +25.6% A- · D/E 1.34 C · P/E 16.5x A- · PEG 0.04 A
Why now. Pagaya’s flagship Decline Monetization engine is unlocking a new revenue stream by converting rejected loan applications into approved assets, driving a 25.6% YoY revenue growth while the business churns out $252 m of free cash flow. At a PE of 16.5× and a PEG of 0.04, the stock trades far below its 52‑week high of $44.99, meaning the market is undervaluing a high‑margin (9.1%) growth engine. The whole thesis hinges on the ability of Decline Monetization to keep compounding revenue at double‑digit rates as more lenders adopt the AI‑driven network.
Moat. The Decline Monetization platform creates a sticky, data‑rich network of lenders and investors; once a partner routes rejected applications, the AI model learns proprietary risk signals that are hard for rivals to replicate, locking in pricing power that fuels a ROE of 19.5%. This AI‑driven edge translates into higher margins and a defensible position in the U.S. financial‑services AI market.
Risk. Pagaya’s ultra‑high beta of 5.37 makes the stock wildly sensitive to market swings, and its debt‑to‑equity of 1.34 adds leverage risk if credit cycles tighten. Moreover, the Bull Rankings model’s reverse‑DCF shows the current price implies a negative -12%/yr free‑cash‑flow growth for the next decade, a stark mismatch with the 25.6% revenue expansion—if the AI engine stalls, the valuation collapse would be swift.
Horizon. 1-3 yr $29.20 (analyst consensus (n=10)) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $42.75 at ~13% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $63.42 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
7. GDDY — GoDaddy Inc. · score 85.3
Software - Infrastructure · price $96.98 · 1Y $104.53 · 5Y $153.05 · 10Y $227.04
FCF $1.7b C+ · Rev +7.4% B · D/E n/a · P/E 14.4x A- · PEG 0.68 A-
Why now. GoDaddy’s Applications & Commerce suite – especially the high‑margin Websites + Marketing and Managed WordPress tools – is driving a repeatable revenue engine that is already delivering 7.4% YoY revenue growth, a healthy 17.8% profit margin, and a cheap PEG of 0.68. Coupled with a solid free‑cash‑flow generation of $1.7 B and a consensus 1‑yr price target of $104.53, the stock is primed to compound on its sticky SaaS base. The thesis hinges on the continued expansion of these web‑building services, which lock in small‑business customers for the long haul.
Moat. The Core Platform underpins the A&C segment, providing the infrastructure that powers Websites + Marketing, Managed WordPress and GoDaddy Studio, creating high switching costs for SMB owners who embed these tools into their online presence. This integration, combined with GoDaddy’s domain‑registry advantage, makes it difficult for pure‑play competitors to lure customers away without a costly migration.
Risk. Our model flags Growth as the weakest pillar; the 7.4% revenue expansion is far below the reverse‑DCF implied -15% annual free‑cash‑flow growth baked into today’s price, suggesting the market is over‑optimistic about future cash generation. A slowdown in A&C adoption or pricing pressure could compress the 17.8% margin, and a breach of the implied growth assumption would quickly erode the stock’s upside. Confirmation would come if quarterly revenue growth falls below 5% and the price slides toward the 52‑week low of $71.59.
Horizon. 1-3 yr $104.53 (analyst consensus (n=15)) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $153.05 at ~10% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $227.04 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
8. INTU — Intuit Inc. · score 85.1
Software - Application · price $348.00 · 1Y $428.61 · 5Y $627.53 · 10Y $930.90
FCF $7.8b B+ · Rev +15.1% B+ · D/E 0.44 B · P/E 21.1x B+ · PEG 0.93 B+
Why now. Intuit’s QuickBooks Online platform, now bolstered by Mailchimp’s marketing automation, is driving a 15.1% YoY revenue growth while delivering a 21.9% profit margin and generating $7.8B of free cash flow—a cash‑rich engine that fuels both buybacks and a newly raised dividend. Our Bull Rankings model awards INTU an 85.1/100 quality‑growth score, with Growth as its strongest pillar, underscoring the durability of this compounding engine. The thesis hinges on the continued expansion of the SMB ecosystem that locks customers into a high‑margin, cross‑sell loop.
Moat. The moat lives in Intuit’s sticky SMB customer base that relies on an integrated suite—QuickBooks for accounting, payroll, payments, and Mailchimp for customer outreach—making switching costly and creating network effects across the financial‑management workflow. A ROE of 22.2% reflects pricing power derived from category leadership in small‑business finance, allowing Intuit to capture premium pricing that rivals can’t easily match.
Risk. The bull case is priced in: a forward P/E of 21.1 and a reverse‑DCF that implies a negative -2%/yr free‑cash‑flow growth over the next decade, far below the actual 15% revenue expansion, suggesting the market may be over‑optimistic. A debt‑to‑equity of 0.44 and the recent dividend increase could constrain reinvestment, and any slowdown in SMB spending would erode margins. A breach of the dividend‑raise signal or a miss on revenue growth would confirm the bear view.
Horizon. 1-3 yr $428.61 (analyst consensus (n=32)) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $627.53 at ~13% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $930.90 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
9. DOCS — Doximity, Inc. · score 84.1
Health Information Services · price $25.59 · 1Y $29.78 · 5Y $43.60 · 10Y $64.67
FCF $306m C · Rev +11.2% B · D/E 0.01 A- · P/E 30.5x B · PEG 0.59 A-
Why now. DOCS’s AI‑driven workflow tool Ask is turning the platform into a daily clinical indispensable, fueling a virtuous loop of higher engagement and premium ad spend. The business is delivering 11.2% revenue growth YoY, a rock‑solid 25.5% profit margin, and a PEG of 0.59, all while our model flags a Quality score of 84.1 – the strongest pillar is Quality, confirming the durability of these margins. The thesis rests on the continued compounding of AI‑enhanced usage that should keep cash conversion high and drive the stock toward the consensus 1‑yr target.
Moat. DOCS commands a locked‑in community of U.S. physicians who rely on its HIPAA‑compliant AI assistant Ask and the curated newsfeed for clinical decisions, creating a high switching cost and network effect. This stickiness translates into an ROE of 18.2%, generated by pricing power in a niche where health systems pay premium to reach doctors directly, a moat our Quality pillar quantifies.
Risk. The stock trades at a forward P/E of 30.5, far above the sector median, and the Bull Rankings model’s reverse‑DCF assumes only ~7% annual FCF growth – a level below the 11.2% revenue growth rate, implying the market may be over‑optimistic about sustaining margins. A slowdown in ad spend or a rival platform winning physician mindshare would compress margins and validate the elevated valuation. A breach of the 30.5 P/E or a dip in revenue growth would trigger the bear case.
Horizon. 1-3 yr $29.78 (analyst consensus (n=18)) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $43.60 at ~11% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $64.67 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
10. APP — AppLovin Corporation · score 83.7
Advertising Agencies · price $312.63 · 1Y $525.58 · 5Y $769.50 · 10Y $1,142
FCF $4.5b B · Rev +60.6% A · D/E 1.11 C+ · P/E 24.0x B · PEG 0.88 B+
Why now. AppLovin’s MAX in‑app bidding platform is locking in a runaway revenue engine, delivering 60.6% YoY revenue growth, 64.6% profit margin and $4.5 B of free cash flow – a trifecta that fuels compounding cash generation. The Bull Rankings model scores the company 83.7/100, with Growth as its strongest pillar, confirming that the upside is driven by durable, high‑velocity expansion rather than a temporary hype cycle. The thesis rests on the ability of MAX and Axon Ads Manager to keep capture rates rising as mobile developers double‑down on AI‑driven monetization.
Moat. MAX runs a real‑time competitive auction that extracts the highest price from every ad impression, creating a lock‑in for publishers who cannot replicate the latency‑critical infrastructure in‑house. Coupled with Adjust’s measurement suite, developers gain a single‑pane view of performance, raising switching costs and cementing AppLovin’s position as the go‑to monetization stack for high‑growth apps.
Risk. The stock trades at a lofty P/E of 24 and a beta of 2.53, meaning any slowdown in the 60% revenue surge or a market pull‑back would amplify volatility; the debt‑to‑equity of 1.11 also leaves limited headroom for aggressive acquisition or buy‑back financing. A breach of the 52‑week low around $297 would signal that the market is pricing in a deceleration, confirming the bear case.
Horizon. 1-3 yr $525.58 (analyst consensus (n=31)) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $769.50 at ~20% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $1,142 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
11. CARG — CarGurus, Inc. · score 83.3
Auto & Truck Dealerships · price $36.36 · 1Y $41.38 · 5Y $60.59 · 10Y $89.88
FCF $315m C · Rev +13.9% B+ · D/E 0.70 B+ · P/E 18.7x B · PEG 1.07 B+
Why now. CarGurus’ Digital Deal platform is turning its massive shopper‑dealer network into a repeatable revenue engine, driving 13.9% YoY revenue growth, 18.2% profit margin and a staggering 66.6% ROE. The Bull Rankings model awards an 88 Quality score – the highest pillar – confirming the business’s durable pricing power, while the market still undervalues the growth story, making the current price a launchpad for compounding earnings.
Moat. The platform’s dealer‑subscription and advertising model locks dealers into a high‑frequency, data‑rich marketplace, creating switching costs for both sellers and buyers. This network effect fuels the 66.6% ROE, as CarGurus can monetize a captive audience at premium rates that rivals cannot replicate quickly.
Risk. The stock trades at a forward P/E of 18.7, already pricing in a reverse‑DCF implied free‑cash‑flow decline of ~3% per year, which is below the 13.9% revenue growth rate; a slowdown in Digital Deal adoption or margin compression would validate the model’s weak Value pillar (77) and could push the price toward the 52‑week low of $26.39. A breach of the 52‑week low would confirm the bear case.
Horizon. 1-3 yr $41.38 (analyst consensus (n=13)) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $60.59 at ~11% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $89.88 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
12. INOD — Innodata Inc. · score 83.2
Information Technology Services · price $59.23 · 1Y $122.75 · 5Y $179.72 · 10Y $266.60
FCF $184m C · Rev +39.0% A · D/E 0.02 A- · P/E 45.9x C+ · PEG 0.87 B+
Why now. The bull case hinges on Innodata’s AI‑training data engine in the Digital Data Solutions segment, which is fueling a 39% YoY revenue growth and a 14.7% profit margin. Our Bull Rankings model awards a Quality‑Growth score of 83.2 with Growth as the strongest pillar, underscoring the durability of this compounding engine, while the free‑cash‑flow generation of $184 m and a PEG of 0.87 signal that earnings are accelerating faster than valuation multiples. The thesis rests on the continued expansion of AI model training demand, which should keep the growth engine humming for years to come.
Moat. Innodata’s moat lives in its DDS AI‑training data platform and the Synodex medical‑record digitization service, both of which embed deep data pipelines that customers cannot replace overnight. The high ROE of 29.1% stems from pricing power in these niche, high‑margin data‑as‑a‑service contracts, while the low debt‑to‑equity of 0.02 gives it financial flexibility to reinvest and stay ahead of rivals.
Risk. The bear case centers on the sky‑high valuation: a P/E of 45.9 and a reverse‑DCF that assumes a negative ‑4% / yr free‑cash‑flow growth over the next decade, a stark contrast to the current 39% revenue surge. Coupled with a beta of 2.92 and shareholder dilution signals, any slowdown in AI spending or a miss on margin targets would force the stock back toward its 52‑week low of $34.23. A sustained earnings miss would validate the over‑optimism and crush the bull thesis.
Horizon. 1-3 yr $122.75 (analyst consensus (n=4)) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $179.72 at ~25% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $266.60 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
13. LRN — Stride, Inc. · score 82
Education & Training Services · price $85.30 · 1Y $98.09 · 5Y $143.62 · 10Y $213.05
FCF $433m C · Rev +4.7% C+ · D/E 0.33 A- · P/E 11.9x A · PEG 0.50 A
Why now. Stride, Inc. presents a compelling value proposition for a company categorized as "growth," with our model assigning a Value score of 96 as its strongest pillar, indicating deep undervaluation. The market's implied ~-11%/yr free-cash-flow growth for the next decade, derived from today's $85.30 price, stands in stark contrast to its reported 4.7% FY YoY revenue growth and robust $433m in TTM FCF. This pessimism overlooks the durable demand for its educational platform, particularly in software engineering and healthcare, suggesting significant upside as the market re-rates its consistent profitability.
Moat. Stride's durable edge stems from its comprehensive, end-to-end educational platform, which integrates content management, learning management, student information, and data analytics into a single sign-on system. This proprietary platform creates significant switching costs for educational institutions and students, making it difficult for competitors to dislodge. The company's impressive 20.7% Return on Equity reflects the pricing power derived from this integrated, mission-critical infrastructure, particularly for delivering specialized online coursework in fields like healthcare and software engineering.
Risk. The primary bear case against Stride, Inc. centers on its decelerating growth trajectory, with our model flagging Growth as its weakest pillar at 67/100. Despite its "growth" classification, the company reported a modest 4.7% FY YoY revenue growth, suggesting that its comprehensive platform may struggle to capture significant new market share in a competitive education landscape. A sustained decline in new student enrollments or increased competition for its online coursework in software engineering and medical fields, leading to further compression of its profit margin from 13.4%, would confirm the bear's skepticism about its long-term expansion potential.
Horizon. 1-3 yr $98.09 (structural (no analyst coverage)) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $143.62 at ~11% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $213.05 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
14. ADMA — ADMA Biologics, Inc. · score 81.8
Biotechnology · price $9.48 · 1Y $17.00 · 5Y $24.89 · 10Y $36.92
FCF $116m C · Rev +8.0% B · D/E 1.11 C · P/E 13.5x A- · PEG 0.58 A-
Why now. ADMA’s dominant position in the U.S. IVIG market, anchored by BIVIGAM and ASCENIV, fuels a high‑margin earnings engine that is expanding at 8% YoY revenue growth while delivering a 33% profit margin and a staggering 41.4% ROE. The Bull Rankings model rates the company 81.8/100 on quality‑growth, with Value as its strongest pillar, underscoring that the stock is materially underpriced relative to its cash‑generating power. The thesis hinges on compounding these margins and growth as ADMA scales its plasma collection network and captures share from legacy IVIG providers.
Moat. ADMA controls a vertically integrated plasma supply chain through its ADMA BioManufacturing and Plasma Collection Centers, giving it exclusive access to high‑quality plasma for BIVIGAM and ASCENIV. This integration creates steep switching costs for hospitals and insurers, while the proprietary manufacturing process sustains pricing power that drives the 41.4% ROE.
Risk. The bear case centers on the modest 8% revenue growth, which lags the 3% free‑cash‑flow growth implied by the reverse‑DCF, suggesting the market may be over‑optimistic about future compounding; any slowdown in plasma collection or pricing pressure could compress the 33% margin and push the P/E of 13.5 into valuation territory. A breach of the 1.11 debt‑to‑equity ratio or a missed buyback cadence would confirm the downside.
Horizon. 1-3 yr $17.00 (analyst consensus (n=5)) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $24.89 at ~21% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $36.92 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
15. EPAM — EPAM Systems, Inc. · score 81.7
Information Technology Services · price $112.77 · 1Y $122.82 · 5Y $179.83 · 10Y $266.76
FCF $483m C · Rev +10.8% B · D/E 0.04 A- · P/E 15.3x A- · PEG 0.60 A-
Why now. EPAM’s digital platform engineering and cloud services are fueling a 10.8% YoY revenue growth while delivering $483 m of free cash flow and a rock‑solid PE of 15.3 at a market cap of $5.8 bn, making the stock a cheap growth play. Our Bull Rankings model gives EPAM an 81.7/100 quality‑growth score, with Value as its strongest pillar, underscoring that the market is undervaluing a business that can keep compounding on high‑margin software engineering contracts. The thesis hinges on continued demand for cloud‑enabled digital transformation, which should sustain the current growth trajectory.
Moat. EPAM’s end‑to‑end engineering practice—from requirements analysis to smart automation—creates deep integration with enterprise clients, locking in multi‑year contracts and making migration to a competitor costly. Its expertise in AI‑driven analytics and cybersecurity further entrenches the relationship, delivering a pricing edge that translates into an ROE of 11.4% despite modest scale.
Risk. The stock trades at a beta of 1.37, exposing it to market volatility, and our model flags Quality as the weakest pillar (73), suggesting execution risk in a highly competitive services landscape. A PE of 15.3, while reasonable, may still be stretched if revenue growth decelerates from the current 10.8% pace, and a breach of the 4% reverse‑DCF implied FCF growth assumption would crush the upside. A slowdown in cloud‑spending or a loss of a marquee client would confirm the bear case.
Horizon. 1-3 yr $122.82 (analyst consensus (n=17)) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $179.83 at ~10% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $266.76 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
16. EXLS — ExlService Holdings, Inc. · score 81.4
Information Technology Services · price $38.18 · 1Y $44.38 · 5Y $64.97 · 10Y $96.38
FCF $297m C · Rev +13.4% B+ · D/E 0.57 C+ · P/E 24.2x B+ · PEG 1.11 B+
Why now. EXLS’s AI‑powered claims management and underwriting analytics in the Insurance segment are set to compound revenue at 13.4% YoY, feeding a ROE of 32.3% and delivering $297 m of free cash flow. Our Bull Rankings model gives the stock an 81.4 quality‑growth score, with Growth as the strongest pillar, meaning the business is outpacing peers, while the Value pillar is the weakest, suggesting the market is under‑pricing that compounding power. The reverse‑DCF only assumes a 6% FCF growth rate—well below the 13% top‑line expansion—so the current price of $38.18 already embeds a generous premium, leaving upside for investors who buy now.
Moat. The firm’s deep integration into insurance carriers’ claim processing and actuarial analytics creates high switching costs; insurers rely on EXLS’s AI‑driven risk models and policy servicing platforms, which are difficult to replicate quickly. This lock‑in, combined with a 0.57 debt‑to‑equity ratio, lets the company reinvest cash into proprietary AI engines, sustaining the 32.3% ROE that stems from pricing power in a niche, data‑intensive market.
Risk. A bearish view centers on the premium valuation—PE of 24.2 is above the sector average and the weak Value pillar flags that investors may be over‑paying for growth that could slow if insurance spend on AI dips. If revenue growth stalls below the current 13.4% pace, the implied 6% FCF growth assumption would be breached, pulling the stock toward its 52‑week low of $24.85. A measurable drop in the P/E toward peer levels would confirm the bear case.
Horizon. 1-3 yr $44.38 (analyst consensus (n=8)) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $64.97 at ~11% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $96.38 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
17. DECK — Deckers Outdoor Corporation · score 81
Footwear & Accessories · price $86.33 · 1Y $122.81 · 5Y $179.81 · 10Y $266.73
FCF $1.1b C+ · Rev +7.9% B · D/E 0.21 A- · P/E 12.3x A- · PEG 1.09 B+
Why now. Deckers' UGG and HOKA lines are riding a durable consumer shift toward premium comfort footwear, driving a 7.9% revenue growth and an industry‑leading 44.1% ROE. The business converts that growth into a healthy 18.4% profit margin while generating $1.1 B of free cash flow, fueling ongoing buybacks that amplify shareholder returns. The bull case hinges on the momentum of these high‑margin brands compounding earnings well beyond the modest 2% FCF‑growth implied by the reverse DCF.
Moat. Deckers locks in premium pricing through category leadership in the high‑margin UGG and HOKA segments, where product differentiation and fit‑specific technology create switching costs for consumers seeking performance and comfort. This pricing power translates directly into the observed 44.1% ROE, a level unattainable for lower‑priced competitors lacking comparable design and fit expertise.
Risk. The bear case centers on the slowdown of the comfort‑footwear trend and the risk that rivals replicate HOKA's performance tech, which would compress margins; the current P/E of 12.3x already reflects optimism, and any deceleration below the 7.9% revenue growth rate would force the stock toward its 52‑week low of $78.91. A sustained margin contraction or a rise in debt‑to‑equity above the current 0.21 would confirm the downside.
Horizon. 1-3 yr $122.81 (analyst consensus (n=21)) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $179.81 at ~16% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $266.73 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
18. FISV — Fiserv, Inc. · score 80.8
Sector n/a · price $52.58 · 1Y $61.79 · 5Y $90.46 · 10Y $134.19
FCF $3.9b B · Rev +9.3% B · D/E n/a · P/E 10.1x A- · PEG 0.86 B+
Why now. The Bull Rankings model gives FISV an 80.8/100 quality‑growth score, with Value as its strongest pillar (88) and Quality the weakest (76), so the cheapness relative to peers is the decisive edge. The company is delivering 9.3% YoY revenue growth, a 17.3% profit margin and $3.9 B of free cash flow on a $28 B market cap, all while trading near its 52‑week low of $47.04. That combination of cash‑generating growth and a valuation gap makes the upside hinge on the business continuing to compound cash flow from its integrated payments platform.
Moat. FISV’s moat lives in its end‑to‑end payments ecosystem that locks in large merchants and financial institutions through deep API integrations, data‑rich processing services and long‑term contracts, creating switching costs that competitors cannot replicate quickly. The platform’s scale also yields cost efficiencies that protect its 17.3% margin and fuel the steady free‑cash‑flow generation.
Risk. Our model’s reverse DCF shows the current price implies a -14% annual free‑cash‑flow growth rate for the next decade – a stark mismatch to the actual 9.3% revenue growth and 17.3% margin, indicating the market is already pricing in overly optimistic cash‑flow expansion. If growth stalls or margins compress, the stock could revert to its 52‑week low, confirming the bear case.
Horizon. 1-3 yr $61.79 (analyst consensus (n=28)) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $90.46 at ~11% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $134.19 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
19. RMD — ResMed Inc. · score 80.8
Medical Instruments & Supplies · price $235.76 · 1Y $245.50 · 5Y $359.44 · 10Y $533.20
FCF $1.6b C+ · Rev +9.9% B · D/E 0.13 B+ · P/E 22.6x B+ · PEG 1.37 B
Why now. ResMed’s AirView cloud platform, paired with its market‑leading NightOwl disposable diagnostic device, is locking in a growing base of sleep clinics and home‑care providers, driving a 9.9% YoY revenue growth and a robust 26.9% profit margin. The business’s low debt‑to‑equity of 0.13 and a free‑cash‑flow generation of $1.6 B give management room to raise the dividend while reinvesting in the digital health ecosystem, compounding earnings at a rate that our model deems sustainable. The thesis rests on the continued expansion of cloud‑connected sleep solutions, which should keep the 10%+ free‑cash‑flow growth assumption alive.
Moat. AirView’s SaaS integration creates a sticky data loop for hospitals, sleep labs and home‑care operators, making it costly to switch to a rival platform because clinicians rely on longitudinal patient data and remote monitoring dashboards. This lock‑in, combined with ResMed’s 23.1% ROE, stems from pricing power in the Sleep segment where its ApneaLink Air and EasyCare Tx dominate diagnostic and therapy workflows, a position competitors can’t replicate quickly due to regulatory clearance and device‑software integration.
Risk. The stock trades at a 22.6× PE, well above the sector median, and the implied 6% free‑cash‑flow growth in the reverse‑DCF exceeds the actual 9.9% revenue growth, suggesting optimism that may be hard to sustain if reimbursement pressure tightens or newer home‑sleep technologies erode NightOwl’s market share. A slowdown in margin expansion or a rise in debt would confirm the bear case, pulling the price toward the 52‑week low of $180.27.
Horizon. 1-3 yr $245.50 (analyst consensus (n=16)) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $359.44 at ~9% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $533.20 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
20. GMED — Globus Medical, Inc. · score 79.5
Medical Devices · price $82.54 · 1Y $103.23 · 5Y $151.14 · 10Y $224.21
FCF $756m C+ · Rev +19.7% B+ · D/E 0.02 A- · P/E 21.1x B+ · PEG 1.49 B
Why now. GMED is a compounding machine in spine and musculoskeletal devices, and the numbers prove it: 19.7% revenue growth in the last fiscal year, $756m in trailing free cash flow, and an ROE of 11.2% while carrying almost no debt (D/E of 0.02). The company’s motion preservation technologies—like dynamic stabilization and total disc replacement—are the fastest-growing segment in its portfolio, and they’re riding a secular trend of aging populations demanding alternatives to fusion. The crux: Globus isn’t just growing; it’s growing with pricing power and capital efficiency that most medtech peers can’t match.
Moat. Globus’ moat is built on category leadership in motion preservation technologies, where it holds a near-monopoly in dynamic stabilization and total disc replacement implants—segments with the highest margins and the stickiest surgeon loyalty due to complex surgical training and device-specific instrumentation. The company’s interventional solutions for vertebral compression fractures also command premium pricing, and its biologic portfolio (allografts and synthetic alternatives) locks in recurring revenue from hospitals that standardize on its systems. Our model’s Quality score of 73 reflects this durable edge: an ROE of 11.2% isn’t just ‘good’—it’s the result of pricing power from category leadership in X, not generic ‘strong brands’.
Risk. The bear case is simple: P/E of 21.1x is rich for a growth name, and the Bull Rankings model’s reverse DCF implies the stock assumes only ~2% FCF growth for a decade—far below the 19.7% revenue growth Globus just posted. If motion preservation adoption stalls or a competitor like Medtronic launches a disruptive alternative, the growth engine could sputter, and the premium multiple would collapse. The concrete signal to confirm the bear case: a deceleration in revenue growth below 15% for two consecutive quarters, paired with margin compression in the motion preservation segment.
Horizon. 1-3 yr $103.23 (analyst consensus (n=13)) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $151.14 at ~13% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $224.21 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
21. BSX — Boston Scientific Corporation · score 79
Medical Devices · price $46.67 · 1Y $62.69 · 5Y $91.78 · 10Y $136.16
FCF $3.6b B · Rev +13.5% B+ · D/E 0.50 B · P/E 18.9x A- · PEG 0.72 A-
Why now. Boston Scientific is compounding at +13.5% revenue growth while converting 17.5% of sales into $3.6B in free cash flow, and our model scores the Growth pillar at 88/100 — the highest among peers. The MedSurg segment’s single-use duodenoscopes and SpyGlass scopes lock in recurring procedure volumes with infection-prevention advantages that competitors can’t replicate overnight. The crux: endoscopic retrogrades are now standard-of-care for pancreaticobiliary diagnostics, and BSX owns the platform that makes them safer and cheaper per procedure than reusable alternatives.
Moat. The single-use duodenoscope and SpyGlass platform create a network effect: hospitals standardize on BSX’s infection-resistant scopes to meet Joint Commission requirements, raising switching costs for rivals. ROE of 14.7% is driven by pricing power in high-margin disposables (stents, clips) where BSX holds a leading position, insulating it from price wars. IP on electrocautery-enhanced delivery systems further deters entry, as clinical adoption hinges on proven safety data that takes years to replicate.
Risk. At a 18.9x P/E, the stock prices in perfection: our reverse DCF implies -1% FCF growth for a decade, which clashes with the 13.5% revenue growth and 17.5% margins. The Cardiovascular segment’s stents face pressure from Abbott’s drug-coated devices, and any slowdown in endoluminal surgery volumes would expose the company’s leverage to elective procedures. The concrete signal to sell: if Q3 2026 revenue growth drops below 10% YoY, the high-multiple multiple will reprice to reflect secular deceleration.
Horizon. 1-3 yr $62.69 (analyst consensus (n=29)) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $91.78 at ~14% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $136.16 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
22. META — Meta Platforms, Inc. · score 78.9
Internet Content & Information · price $571.10 · 1Y $754.72 · 5Y $1,105 · 10Y $1,639
FCF $41.0b A · Rev +27.7% A- · D/E 0.43 B+ · P/E 21.5x B · PEG 0.85 B+
Why now. META is compounding cash at scale: 29.8% profit margins on $41.0B in trailing free cash flow while growing revenue 27.7% YoY proves the Family of Apps (FoA) segment is a profit machine. The Reality Labs bet is the crux — if AI glasses and VR headsets unlock a new computing platform, the $1.5T valuation is a steal; if not, the core FoA franchise still justifies a premium multiple on its own.
Moat. The FoA segment’s moat is a data flywheel: 26.1% ROE reflects pricing power from category leadership in social feeds, reels, and marketplace, where network effects lock in billions of monthly active users. Competitors can replicate a feed, but not the 15+ years of behavioral data that personalizes ads at lower CAC than peers. Reality Labs’ moat is IP — proprietary AI models for AR/VR and exclusive partnerships with OEMs like Ray-Ban for smart glasses.
Risk. The bear case is that Reality Labs burns cash indefinitely: D/E of 0.43 understates the risk because the segment isn’t self-funding, and a 21.5x P/E on 27.7% growth assumes perfection. The concrete signal to break the bull thesis? Reality Labs’ operating loss widens for two consecutive quarters while FoA growth decelerates below 15% — proving the AI bet is a value destroyer, not a growth engine.
Horizon. 1-3 yr $754.72 (analyst consensus (n=57)) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $1,105 at ~14% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $1,639 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
23. CPAY — Corpay, Inc. · score 78.5
Software - Infrastructure · price $403.67 · 1Y $454.57 · 5Y $573.89 · 10Y $735.99
FCF $1.6b C+ · Rev +20.4% A- · D/E 2.75 D · P/E 24.6x B+ · PEG 0.94 B+
Why now. Software - Infrastructure · market cap $26.5b. 5% off the 52-week high of $425.95. Revenue growing +20%, comfortably above the S&P median. PEG 0.94 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 14 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $454.57 (implying +13% upside).
Moat. Net margin 23% sits well above the S&P median (~11%) — suggests structural pricing advantage or cost discipline competitors can't quickly close. ROE 32% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. FCF converts 144% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk. D/E 2.75 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Software — competitive moat is durable until it isn't; watch net revenue retention, gross margin trends, and any new market entrant with a fundamentally lower price point.
Horizon. 1-3 yr $454.57 (analyst consensus (n=14)) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $573.89 at ~7% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $735.99 if the moat survives secular pressure.
24. VEEV — Veeva Systems Inc. · score 77.9
Health Information Services · price $282.13 · 1Y $260.44 · 5Y $381.32 · 10Y $565.66
FCF $1.7b C+ · Rev +16.5% B+ · D/E 0.01 A- · P/E 46.3x C · PEG 1.11 B+
Why now. Health Information Services · market cap $45.8b. 9% off the 52-week high of $310.50. Revenue growing +17%, comfortably above the S&P median. 27 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $260.44 (implying -8% upside).
Moat. Net margin 29% sits well above the S&P median (~11%) — suggests structural pricing advantage or cost discipline competitors can't quickly close. ROE 14% meets the long-run market sustainable threshold — solid but not differentiated; the durability comes from elsewhere. FCF converts 164% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk. Trailing P/E 46x sits well above the S&P median (~20x) — multiple compression is a real risk if revenue growth decelerates. P/S 13.3x embeds aggressive forward growth — disappointing top-line guidance would compress the multiple hard.
Horizon. 1-3 yr $260.44 (analyst consensus (n=27)) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $381.32 at ~6% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $565.66 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
25. WMG — Warner Music Group Corp. · score 77
Entertainment · price $28.19 · 1Y $36.88 · 5Y $46.56 · 10Y $59.72
FCF $836m C+ · Rev +12.9% B+ · D/E 4.53 D · P/E 22.6x B · PEG 0.50 A
Why now. Entertainment · market cap $14.7b. Down 20% from 52-week high of $35.42 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +13%, comfortably above the S&P median. PEG 0.50 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 17 sell-side analysts publish a mean 1-yr target of $36.88 (implying +31% upside).
Moat. ROE 79% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. FCF converts 124% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk. D/E 4.53 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer.
Horizon. 1-3 yr $36.88 (analyst consensus (n=17)) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $46.56 at ~11% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $59.72 if the moat survives secular pressure.
26. YUMC — Yum China Holdings, Inc. · score 76.5
Restaurants · price $44.91 · 1Y $62.05 · 5Y $90.85 · 10Y $134.77
FCF $940m C+ · Rev +8.8% B · D/E 0.38 A- · P/E 16.5x B+ · PEG 1.22 B
Why now. Restaurants · market cap $15.3b. Down 23% from 52-week high of $58.39 — deep drawdown territory. 21 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $62.05 (implying +38% upside).
Moat. ROE 18% is above 15% — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. FCF converts 96% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk. Mature compounder — the risk is paying up for quality at a moment when growth is decelerating. Watch for sequential revenue + margin trends; the inflection from "compounder" to "ex-compounder" is hard to spot until the multiple already started compressing.
Horizon. 1-3 yr $62.05 (analyst consensus (n=21)) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $90.85 at ~15% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $134.77 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
27. EME — EMCOR Group, Inc. · score 75.2
Engineering & Construction · price $775.04 · 1Y $1,033 · 5Y $1,304 · 10Y $1,673
FCF $1.2b C+ · Rev +18.9% B+ · D/E 0.13 A- · P/E 24.1x B+ · PEG 0.37 A
Why now. Engineering & Construction · market cap $34.2b. 19% off the 52-week high of $951.96. Revenue growing +19%, comfortably above the S&P median. PEG 0.37 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 7 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $1,033 (implying +33% upside).
Moat. ROE 35% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which.
Risk. Value re-rating depends on a catalyst. Without one — analyst day, divestiture, margin recovery, capital return — the stock can stay cheap on these multiples for years.
Horizon. 1-3 yr $1,033 (analyst consensus (n=7)) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $1,304 at ~11% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $1,673 if the moat survives secular pressure.
28. CCK — Crown Holdings, Inc. · score 75.1
Packaging & Containers · price $117.34 · 1Y $136.57 · 5Y $172.42 · 10Y $221.12
FCF $1.2b C+ · Rev +10.3% B · D/E 1.86 C+ · P/E 16.9x B+ · PEG 0.64 A-
Why now. Packaging & Containers · market cap $12.8b. 5% off the 52-week high of $122.91. Revenue growing +10%, comfortably above the S&P median. PEG 0.64 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 14 sell-side analysts publish a mean 1-yr target of $136.57 (implying +16% upside).
Moat. ROE 27% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. FCF converts 153% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk. Value re-rating depends on a catalyst. Without one — analyst day, divestiture, margin recovery, capital return — the stock can stay cheap on these multiples for years.
Horizon. 1-3 yr $136.57 (analyst consensus (n=14)) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $172.42 at ~8% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $221.12 if the moat survives secular pressure.
29. VRT — Vertiv Holdings Co · score 74.9
Electrical Equipment & Parts · price $269.28 · 1Y $338.15 · 5Y $495.09 · 10Y $734.43
FCF $2.9b B · Rev +26.2% A- · D/E 0.70 B · P/E 60.8x D · PEG 1.20 B+
Why now. Electrical Equipment & Parts · market cap $103.7b. Down 29% from 52-week high of $379.94 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +26% — in hypergrowth territory. 26 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $338.15 (implying +26% upside).
Moat. Net margin 15% beats the market median by a meaningful margin — the company is keeping more of every revenue dollar than the average S&P constituent. ROE 36% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. FCF converts 169% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk. Trailing P/E 60.8x prices in sustained high growth — any quarter that disappoints triggers sharp re-rating. Beta 2.08 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return.
Horizon. 1-3 yr $338.15 (analyst consensus (n=26)) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $495.09 at ~13% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $734.43 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
30. STRL — Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. · score 74.5
Engineering & Construction · price $506.37 · 1Y $876.00 · 5Y $1,283 · 10Y $1,903
FCF $482m C · Rev +60.8% A · D/E 0.24 A- · P/E 36.5x C+ · PEG 0.83 B+
Why now. Engineering & Construction · market cap $15.5b. Down 50% from 52-week high of $1005.68 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +61% — in hypergrowth territory. PEG 0.83 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 7 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $876.00 (implying +73% upside).
Moat. Net margin 13% beats the market median by a meaningful margin — the company is keeping more of every revenue dollar than the average S&P constituent. ROE 32% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. FCF converts 112% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk. Down 50% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Beta 1.89 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return. Trailing P/E 36x sits well above the S&P median (~20x) — multiple compression is a real risk if revenue growth decelerates.
Horizon. 1-3 yr $876.00 (analyst consensus (n=7)) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $1,283 at ~20% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $1,903 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Methodology footnote
Every pick on this list comes out of the same quality-growth model — one 0–100 score blending quality, growth, and value — applied to every US-listed common stock with a market cap above $1B. Each pick's score breakdown is auditable from the home page — click the ticker on the rankings page to see exactly which grades produced the number. Not investment advice. See terms for full disclosures.